SDSU Faculty Profile - Dr. Victor Miguel Ponce - Abstracts of recent publications

160. RECENT ABSTRACTS
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  • Comments to Draft supplemental environmental impact statement for the proposed Campo regional landfill project , Web published, May 5, 2010.

    Abstract: This document provides comments to the Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (DSEIS) for the proposed Campo Regional Landfill Project. The DSEIS was prepared by the Bureau of Indian Affairs in cooperation with the Campo Band of Mission Indians, the Campo Environmental Protection Agency, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. This document is organized into various headings. Headings are organized topically to comment on major issues raised by the DSEIS. The siting of the Campo landfill on top of a fractured rock aquifer, barring appropriate characterization of the fractured rock system, and without adequate monitoring to prevent contaminant leakage beyond the landfill perimeter, threatens the quality of life of nearby residents, both on and off the reservation. Subsurface flow direction in a fractured rock aquifer defies characterization and absolute certainty. Thus, aquifer contamination remains a distinct possibility. Once the groundwater has become contaminated, it will be very difficult to remediate. The contaminated water may tend to diffuse into the rock matrix's stagnant pore water, increasing the difficulty of cleanup. Another source of concern is the possible mobilization of chemical elements in the rock, as a result of the biogeochemistry of the leachate plume. The absence of a detailed plan for east-side well monitoring for nearly two-thirds of the landfill footprint is a serious omission of the DSEIS. As currently conceived, the plan is expected to provide monitoring wells at a distance of about 500 feet on the east side. This is insufficient and a cause for grave concern. The federal designation of the Campo-Cottonwood Creek aquifer, which includes the Tierra del Sol aquifer, as sole source means that if this aquifer becomes contaminated, there are no reasonably available sources of water. Mitigation measures have promised to make up for this, but no feasible alternative sources have been identified. Once the state-avowed target of 75% waste diversion is fully in place, the need for additional landfill space in San Diego County will be significantly reduced for the next several decades. It is highly improbable that the county would need to rely on the Campo landfill for its solid waste disposal needs well into the future. Therefore, to remain in business, the Campo landfill will have to import waste from much farther sources and, at that point, may have to consider receiving other types of wastes, including special wastes. The neglect of the February 24, 1892 earthquake, of Magnitude 7.8, the largest on record, is a serious omission of the DSEIS. The Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) may have to be recalculated. Strong ground motions can reset the pressure in the fractured rock aquifer and can cause very large temporary increases in water pressure. No liner taking a direct hit can withstand these pressure increases. In summary, the proposed Campo landfill site lies: (1) on top of a fractured rock aquifer, (2) on a headwater basin where very intense storms are possible, (3) within close reach of the groundwater, and (4) in a region prone to strong earthquakes. This poses a high risk of contamination of the designated sole-source aquifer. Significantly, the conjunction of four natural geologic loads or hazards foretells of disasters waiting to happen. Thus, the project presents a serious threat to the public health and safety of nearby residents, both on and off the reservation, as well as to residents of neighboring Mexican communities.

  • Hydrological and environmental impact of the irrigations of La Joya and San Isidro-La Cano on the Vitor valley, Arequipa, Peru, Web published, April 2008.

    Abstract: The irrigations of La Joya and San Isidro-La Cano, in Arequipa, Peru, are producing several hydrological and environmental impacts on the neighboring Vitor valley. The greatest impact is the increase in salinity of the Vitor river as a result of pollution with irrigation return flows. Another important impact is the slides in the valley slopes, which have occurred at Pie de Cuesta in 1975, in La Cano over the past few weeks (July 2007), as well as in other places. Both impacts may be mitigated by a reduction in the irrigation return flows. There is a need for a comprehensive study to produce a management plan to mitigate the impacts. The study must be interdisciplinary and include, at a minimum, the following fields: geology, geomorphology, hydrogeology, geotecnical engineering, and irrigation and drainage. The solution must consider the replacement of the existing gravity-fed irrigation by a system of drip irrigation, which uses less water and, consequently, results in smaller return flows. Another solution is a drainage system to convey the percolation below the root zone, in a controlled fashion, towards suitable disposal areas. A third solution is the geotechnical stabilization of the slopes. An attractive agronomic alternative is the replacement of the traditional crops by the cactus/cochineal binomial, which uses very little water, is apparently very profitable, and it is well adapted to local conditions. From a local perspective, there seems to be no economically viable solution to the problem of the increased salinity of surface waters as a result of pollution with irrigation return flows.

  • Sustainable yield of ground water, Web published, April 2007.

    Abstract: All groundwater pumping comes from capture; the greater the intensity of pumping, the greater the capture. Capture comes from decreases in natural discharge and increases in recharge. Natural discharge supports riparian, wetland, and other groundwater-dependent ecosystems, as well as the baseflow of streams and rivers. Capture depends on usage, and it is not related to size or hydrogeological characteristics of the aquifer, or to the natural recharge. The traditional concept of safe yield, which equates safe yield with natural recharge, is flawed and has been widely discredited. It has now been replaced with sustainable yield. Sustainable yield depends on the amount of capture, and whether this amount can be accepted as a reasonable compromise between a policy of little or no use, on one extreme, and the sequestration of all natural discharge, on the other extreme. A reasonably conservative estimate of sustainable yield would take all or suitable fractions of deep percolation. On a global basis, deep percolation is about 2% of precipitation. Sustainable yield may also be expressed as a percentage of recharge. Limited experience suggests that average percentages may be around 40%, with the least conservative around 70%, and reasonably conservative around 10%. Sustainability may be fostered by enlightened management which seeks to capture rejected recharge, encourage clean artificial recharge, and limit negative artificial recharge. A holistic approach to groundwater sustainability considers the hydrological, ecological, socioeconomic, technological, cultural, institutional and legal aspects of groundwater utilization, seeking to establish a reasonable compromise between conflicting interests. Communities are beginning to consider baseflow conservation as the standard against which to measure groundwater sustainability. In the end, sustainability reflects resource conservation policy; the more conservative a policy, the more sustainable it is likely to be.

  • Impact of the proposed Campo landfill on the hydrology of the Tierra del Sol watershed, Web published, May 2006.

    Abstract: The impact that the proposed Campo landfill will have on the hydrology of the Tierra del Sol watershed is examined using an interdisciplinary perspective. Analysis of precipitation and well data suggests the presence of an effective hydraulic connection between surface water and groundwater in the region. Existing fracture maps and other geologic evidence reveal the extent to which the underlying aquifer is fractured. The presence of numerous springs and photogeologic lineaments indicates that water flows readily from the fractured-rock aquifer to the creeks, streams, and wells of the Tierra del Sol watershed.

    Selected vegetative species with an established moisture affinity are documented in the Tierra del Sol watershed. Specimens of blue elderberry (Sambucus mexicana) appear to be aligned along fractures, where moisture can be sustained for long periods. Thick stands of red shank (Adenostoma sparsifolium) constitute the predominant species in several of the lineaments identified in aerial images. Unlike the chamise (Adenostoma fasciculatum), its closely related and more widely distributed chaparral species, the red shank is a tall arborescent shrub which thrives on moist sites. The spatial distribution of blue elderberry and red shank points to the existence of local moisture gradients which could be tied to the rock fractures.

    In fractured-rock aquifers, a leachate plume will move preferentially along the fractures. Advection is likely to be the predominant physical mechanism, with travel times from capture zone to nearby wells measured in days, rather than in years as would be the case in more traditional diffusion-dominated settings. Given the complexity of the fractured-rock system, the probability that leachate plumes will be missed by the system of monitoring wells is high. Thus, placing a major landfill on top of a fractured-rock aquifer such as Tierra del Sol's significantly compromises the health and welfare of the local population on both sides of the U.S.-Mexico border. Moreover, Tierra del Sol is part of the federally designated Campo-Cottonwood Sole Source Aquifer, i.e., it has been determined that, should this aquifer become contaminated, there are no reasonably available alternative sources of drinking water.

  • Groundwater utilization and sustainability, Web published, January 2006.

    Abstract: The indiscriminate and sometimes excessive use of groundwater has led to questions regarding its sustainability. To what extent can groundwater be exploited without unduly compromising the principle of sustainable development? The sustainability of groundwater utilization must be assessed from an interdisciplinary perspective, where hydrology, ecology, geomorphology, and climatology play an important role. Shallow groundwater flow systems should be distinguished from deep groundwater flow systems; the former interact with surface water, while the latter do not. Generally, groundwater does not recycle as fast as the surface water, with rates of groundwater turnover varying from years to millennia, depending on aquifer location, type, depth, properties, and connectivity. Excessive pumping can lead to groundwater depletion, where groundwater is extracted at a rate faster that it can be replenished. Unregulated groundwater use leads to the "Tragedy of the Commons," with the eventual depletion of the resource and ruin to all. The effects of excessive groundwater development tend to become apparent gradually, with time often measured in decades. To assure sustainability, studies must show that the hydrological, ecological, and other impacts of groundwater utilization are minimal. In addition to water quantity, sustainability must imply the preservation of water quality.

  • Flood hydrology of Tecate Creek, Tecate, Baja California, Mexico, Web published, July 2005.

    Abstract: A hydrologic study has been performed with the objective of ascertaining flood peak discharges and related hydrographs for Tecate Creek at Tecate, Baja California, Mexico. The study underpins ongoing studies to restore Tecate Creek to productive stability. The aim is to assure adequate flood conveyance, while preserving and enhancing related hydroecological, socioeconomic, and aesthetic functions.

    The hydrologic model RAINFLO, developed at San Diego State University, has been used for these studies. The model subdivides the basin into twentysix (26) subbasins and converts distributed event precipitation into flood runoff following established hydrologic practices. Flood peaks and discharges are calculated for the following return periods: 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 yr. In addition, the Gumbel method is used to extend the set of modeled peak discharges to the return periods of 200, 500, 1000, 2000, 5000, and 10,000 yr. The 10-yr flood peak, i.e., the regulatory flood, is Q10 = 268 m3s-1; the 500-yr flood peak, i.e., the design flood, is Q500 = 997 m3s-1; and the 10,000-yr flood peak, i.e., the probable maximum flood, is Q10,000 = 1499 m3s-1.

  • Sustainable architecture of Arroyo Alamar, Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico, Web published, December 2004.

    Abstract: A methodology for the sustainable architecture of Arroyo Alamar, in Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico, is presented. Sustainable river architecture enables a seamless interaction between diverse stream functions and uses, including flood mitigation, groundwater replenishment, compliance with federal stream zoning regulations, preservation of riparian corridors, enhancement of water quality, and multipurpose land use such as agriculture, light industry, sports and recreation, and urban aesthetics.

    Topographic, hydrological, hydroecological, hydraulic, vegetation, and land-use data were assembled to accomplish the sustainable architectural design of Arroyo Alamar. In addition, a socioeconomic study was performed to develop the appropriate basis for design.

    The flood conveyance channel is designed to carry the 10-yr flood without restrictions and the 1000-yr flood with some restrictions. Above the 10-yr flood level, the 1000-yr flood plain is allocated to soft uses, including recreation. Users of these features would move out of harm's way in the event of an unusual flood. The floodway is stabilized using gabion systems and natural vegetation. The sustainable architectural design considers three parks in one: recreational, sports, and ecological. The 10-km reach of Arroyo Alamar is designed to reflect these uses.

    Sustainable river architecture successfully reconciles hydroecological laws and economic interests. It provides a clear societal benefit such as the inclusion of the river and its flood plain into the city's footprint.

  • Feasibility of pumping scheme to provide water for Tecate River Park, Web published, October 2004.

    Abstract: The feasibility of pumping treated effluent to provide water for the Tecate River Park is reported here. The Tecate river is an ephemeral stream (arroyo or wash) and, therefore, it carries water only during heavy rains and associated floods. The 10-yr flood has been estimated at 79 m3/s (79,000 L/s). A certain amount of recycled water, estimated between 40 and up to 300 L/s, may be available to benefit the Tecate River Park. The fate of this water, once delivered to the Tecate River Park, is assessed herein.

    The hydraulic conductivity of the bed material in the Tecate river has been measured in-situ at six (6) sites along the study reach, labeled in the downstream direction, from RP-1 to RP-6. The bed material consists of poorly graded sands (SP) and fine sands with silt (SP-SM), with some exceptions. Tests show that the hydraulic conductivity varies from high to very high. Channel routing shows that if the hydraulic conductivity of the streambed is very high, the delivered flows will be abstracted very quickly into the groundwater and very little of it will remain in the surface waters. On the other hand, if the hydraulic conductivity is high, a substantial fraction of the delivered flows will remain in the surface water and in the vadose zone, and become available for evapotranspiration. The RP-1 and RP-6 locations showed very high (higher) values of hydraulic conductivity, while the RP-2 and RP-4 locations showed high (i.e., lower) values. A suitable alternative may be a narrow (2-m wide) pilot channel, constructed exclusively for the purpose of optimizing the permanence of surface water. This pilot channel may serve the objective of keeping the delivered water on the surface, to more directly benefit the river park and its associated vegetation.

    The surface water will directly benefit the river park by enhancing landscaping and aesthetics. The subsurface water (vadose-zone water and groundwater) will benefit the river park through riparian vegetation. The replenishment of groundwater will directly benefit the local aquifer.

  • Dam-breach flood wave propagation using dimensionless parameters, Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, Vol. 129, No. 10, October, 2003, 777-782.

    Abstract: An analytical model of flood wave propagation is used to study the sensitivity of dam-breach flood waves to breach-outflow hydrograph volume, peak discharge, and downstream-channel bed slope. Dimensionless parameters are identified for discharge and distance along the channel. A dam-breach Froude number is defined to enable analysis through a wide range of site and flow conditions. It is found that, at a certain distance downstream, the attenuated peak discharge is independent of the megnitude of the discharge at the breach site. This attenuated peak discharge is termed the "ultimate discharge," and the distance associated with it, the "ultimate distance." These ultimate values are a function, primarily of the bed slope and, secondarily, of the breach-outflow hydrograph volume.

  • Embankment dam breaching: Geometry and peak outflow characteristics, Dam Engineering, Vol. XIV, Issue 2, 2003, 73-87.

    Abstract: A review of dam breach parameters and prediction methods developed from the analysis of historic embankment dam failures is performed. A new shape factor representing dam breach geometry is formulated. A relationship between the Froude number, based on peak discharge, and the new shape factor is identified.

  • Drought characterization in the Ojos Negros region, Baja California, Mexico, Revista de Estudos Ambientais, Vol. 4, No. 1, January-April, 2003.

    Abstract: Drought phenomena in the Ojos Negros region, in Baja California, Mexico, has been analyzed using the conceptual model developed by Ponce et al. (2000). Climatological data for ten stations encompassed within the study region were used in the analysis. Drought intensity, duration and frequency extracted from the data were compared with model predictions. Event drought intensity varied from 0.61 to 1.23, with an average of 0.83. Drought duration varied from 2 to 3 yr, with an average of 2.46 yr. Drought frequency varied from 3.5 to 4.83 yr, with an average of 3.96 yr. Drought intensity vs exceedence probability has also been determined.

  • Sustainable management of water in the Ojos Negros valley, Baja California, Mexico, Web published, July 2002.

    Abstract: The Ojos Negros valley, in Baja California, has been studied from an interdisciplinary perspective, with the principal focus on the relationship between irrigated agriculture and groundwater use, including the environmental and social impacts thereof. In the past 130 years of recorded history, the valley has undergone a significant social and economic transformation, such that it now represents a substantial entity among the agricultural regions of the state. This change has been positive from an economic and social standpoint; however, the ecological and environmental impacts have been negative. Irrigated agriculture has resulted in an increase of actual evapotranspiration, as large amounts of subsurface water became part of the surface-water system. Apparently, this has led to a humidification of the local climate, as assessed by a marked decrease (9 oC) in the temperature range during the period of record. The effect is anthropogenic; therefore, it is expected to continue as long as irrigation continues. In the past 30 years, the increased pumping of groundwater has resulted in a depletion of the water table, which now lies at more than 30-m depth in certain places. The lowering of the water table has negatively affected wetland and riparian ecosystems, which prior to the advent of pumping were quite extensive, and now have been reduced to a fraction of their former size. In particular, the drying out of the Ojos Negros marshes, which gave its name to the valley, is attributed to the depletion of groundwater. Average water table depletion was forecasted to be 0.4 m yr-1 for the 50-yr planning horizon, assuming present pumping rates (year 2000). This rate of depletion has an effect on the profits of agricultural operations, but the effect does not appear to be substantial, if not for the ejido proprietors, certainly for the agroindustrial companies that operate in the valley. The apparent lack of sensitivity is attributed to the low cost of energy, since the electric tariffs for agricultural groundwater pumping are the lowest. In the absence of appropriate regulation, it is likely that most stakeholders, including ejido proprietors and agroindustrial companies, will continue to operate their agricultural enterprises into the future. It is certain that the groundwater depletion at Ojos Negros is related to the classical "Tragedy of the Commons." According to this principle, resources held in common will tend to be overexploited by individuals seeking their own gain. Viewed in this light, aquifer regulation appears to be the only way out of this predicament. Regulation should go hand-in-hand with monitoring, since sound policy should always be based on sound data. With regulation, there is an increased chance that the resource will still be there for the benefit of future generations.

  • Flood hydrology of the Binational Cottonwood Creek - Arroyo Alamar, California and Baja California, Web published, July 2001.

    Abstract: The flood hydrology of the Binational Cottonwood Creek - Arroyo Alamar, located in California and Baja California, has been studied. The majority of the contributing watershed (86.2 percent) is located in San Diego County, and the remaning portion (13.8 percent) lies within the municipalities of Tijuana and Tecate, in Baja California. The objective is the calculation of flood flows for return periods from 2 to 1000 years. The analysis has been made using a conceptual hydrologic modeling of rainfall-runoff, of general aplicability. The principal characteristics of the model are: (1) generalized topology, capable of handling a drainage network of any order; (2) rainfall specified for each subbasin, either upland or reach; (3) hydrologic abstraction with the SCS runoff curve number; (4) conversion of rainfall to runoff by means of the convolution of the effective hyetograph with the SCS unit hydrograph; (5) reservoir routing with the storage indication method; (6) channel routing with the Muskingum-Cunge method; and (7) calculation of channel transmission losses for flood propagation in ephemeral streams. The model was run to determine flood discharges for return periods from 2 to 1000 years, specifying the maximum of the mean monthly levels for the period of record as initial condition in Morena and Barrett dams, which control the flow of Cottonwood Creek, in San Diego County. The flood discharges calculated for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, 500, and 1000 years are: 280, 530, 680, 930, 1140, 1310, 1420, 1600, and 1720 m3 s-1, respectively. For the delimiting of federal zones, the design discharge should be greater than 680 m3 s-1, corresponding to a 10-yr return period. For the design of the channel improvements, assuming the applicability of agricultural zones with urban settlements, the design discharge should be greater than 1140 m3 s-1, corresponding to a 50-yr return period, and less than or equal to 1420 m3 s-1, corresponding to a 200-yr return period.

  • Modeling looped ratings in Muskingum-Cunge routing, Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, April 2001.

    Abstract: The Muskingum-Cunge flood routing model is extended to the realm of looped ratings. This is accomplished by reformulating the conventional four-point model to use the local water surface slope and the Vedernikov number in the expression for hydraulic diffusivity. The developed model was successful in generating looped ratings under a wide range of kinematic/diffusive unsteady flow conditions. Numerical experiments were used to test the looped-rating Muskingum-Cunge model. Resolution level, flood wave period, baseflow, and peak-inflow/baseflow ratio were varied to determine loop thickness and percentage mass conservation. Comparison of the looped-rating Muskingum-Cunge with a dynamic wave model (a complete solution of the St. Venant equations) showed that both models are capable of generating looped ratings and outflow hydrographs of comparable accuracy.

  • Potential climatic change derived from the exploitation of groundwater in the Ojos Negros valley, Baja California, Geographical Investigations UNAM , 44, 2001.

    Abstract: A detailed analysis of the records of climatological variables for the Ojos Negros valley, Baja California, revealed a negative tendency for temperature and positive tendency for precipitation, along the study period (1949-93). The increasing groundwater extraction for agricultural use produces a change in the energy balance and a decrease in albedo. From these data, it is inferred that a change in evapotranspiration and a humidification of the local climate occur, hence affecting the analyzed climatological variables. A similar, although more moderate trend, was observed in two climatological stations located nearby which were used as control.

  • Restoration of the Salton sea using solar still distillation, Review of Environmental Studies, May 2000.

    Abstract: The Salton Sea is the largest lake in California, encompassing 979 km2 (378 mi2) in Imperial and Riverside counties, in the southeastern portion of the state. The lake is used as a repository for agricultural wastewater from the neighboring Imperial and Coachella valleys. The wastewater has a high concentration of dissolved solids, up to 3.6 ppt. The lake is threatened by rising salinity, which currently exceeds 44 ppt. The restoration proposal uses solar still distillation to separate the salts from the water. The distilled water is either returned directly to the lake or commercialized to control the lake level. The salts can be exported for ultimate disposal in the high seas.

  • Characterization of drought across the climatic spectrum, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, April 2000.

    Abstract: A conceptual model of drought characterization across the climatic spectrum is formulated. The model is particularly suited to subtropical and midlatitudinal regions. Drought duration, intensity, and recurrence interval are expressed in terms of the ratio of mean annual precipitation to annual global terrestrial precipitation. The model is useful as a framework for the systematic analysis of droughts and the assessment of changes in drought characteristics due to climatic changes.

  • Hydrologic and environmental impact of the Parana-Paraguay waterway on the Pantanal of Mato Grosso, Brazil, San Diego State University, August 1995.

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

               The hydrologic and environmental impacts that the proposed Hidrovia navigation project would have on the Pantanal of Mato Grosso are evaluated in this report. The Pantanal is a seasonally inundated depression, characteristically a wetland (or closely related group of wetlands), wholly contained within the Upper Paraguay river basin. It encompasses an area of 136 700 km2 in the states of Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, in Central Western Brazil. The Hidrovia project entails navigational improvements along the existing Paraná-Paraguay Waterway, which links five countries of South America: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. The project considers extensive river engineering works, including channel straightening, dredging, blasting of rocky sills, and other structural interventions to render 3442 km of the river navigable for ocean-going vessels. The affected region would be from the downstream point at Nueva Palmira, Uruguay, to the upstream point at Cáceres, Brazil, near the headwaters of the Upper Paraguay river. At issue is the impact that extensive channel modifications will have on the Pantanal, the largest remaining wetland in the world.

               The proposed navigational improvements are likely to have a substantial impact on the flood regime of the Upper Paraguay river. The degree of the impact will vary depending on the type and extent of intervention and location along the river. In particular, channel straightening upstream of Corumbá will accelerate the concentration of flood runoff and increase the flood wave peak at Ladario, a key reference point in the Pantanal, during high mean (2-yr), extraordinary (4-yr), and exceptional (10-yr) floods. The Upper Paraguay river upstream of Porto São Francisco (located 146 km upstream of Corumbá) is incapable, without extensive artificial channel deepening, of accomodating ocean-going vessels (requiring a 3-m draft) throughout the year. Currently, autodredging, the river's natural self-cleaning/deepening process, provides a minimum depth of 1.2 m, except where rock outcrops do not permit autodredging to take place.

               The longitudinal profile of the Upper Paraguay river is convex when observed from above, revealing the presence of substantial geologic controls. These controls operate in the form of rock outcrops on the banks or rocky sills in the middle of the channel. The Pantanal exists largely because of these geologic controls, which influence the regional flow patterns in at least three places: Amolar, Porto da Manga and Fecho dos Morros. The rocky sills act as natural dams; if they are removed, extensive areas of Pantanal will no longer be subject to seasonal flooding. Blasting rocky sills as a means of deepening the navigation channel will have an irreversible impact on the hydrology of the Upper Paraguay river. Furthermore, the removal of one rocky sill may lead to the appearance of another rocky sill which was previously submerged. This is a distinct possibility in the Upper Paraguay river, where rock outcrops have been documented to occur every 40 km on the average, and where the prevailing channel slopes are so mild (around 1-2 cm/km) that the backwater effect of a 0.5-m flow obstruction can be felt for about 400 km upstream.

               The acceleration of runoff concentration caused by navigational improvements will intensify most annual floods, may reduce the recurrence interval of multiannual droughts, and may eventually lead to regional climatic changes in the direction of greater aridity. The Pantanal exists because its climatic/geologic/geomorphologic setting conditions it to retain water, sediment, and nutrients. Increases in flood magnitude will result in increased losses of sediment and nutrients.

               The annual flooding of extensive areas of Pantanal serves the dual purpose of effectively controlling overgrazing while replenishing the soil with nutrients. In addition, the seasonal flood pulse is instrumental in maintaining the extensive grasslands, since competing vegetation types, particularly the woody species, are not well adapted to extreme alternations of saturation and desiccation.

               Changes in hydrologic regime resulting in increased intensity of floods and droughts will impair nutrient replenishment in the Pantanal and lead to decreases in biotic productivity. These changes will produce a succession from herbaceous to woody species, which will eventually change the dominant character of the Pantanal, from savanna woodlands to more mesic forests. The open grasslands will shrink, and the cattle raising industry will be negatively impacted.



Flood stage on the Chané river, Santa Cruz department, eastern Bolivia (1990). Note the high velocities and associated surface waves to the right.




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